A new commission set up by the state of Pennsylvania aims to take on a question facing many rural communities across the country: what can be done about declining populations? 

In Pennsylvania, the estimates are stark. Several counties are expected to lose more than 10% of their population by 2050, according to a report from the Center for Rural Pennsylvania. Statewide, the Center reported that rural counties face a 5.8% decline over the next 25 years. 

The implications range from workforce shortages to declining property tax revenue, complications in caring for aging residents and more. Signed into law this month, the Rural Population Revitalization Commission hopes to figure out practical next steps. 

While rural populations have already declined in Pennsylvania, that isn’t true in every state. Nationwide, the number of people living in rural counties grew from 2022 to 2023 by 109,000 residents, or 0.24%. The majority of that growth, though, came from the South, a Daily Yonder analysis found. 

States including Pennsylvania, New York, West Virginia and California all lost residents in their rural counties during the same timeframe. 

And the issue isn’t just about how many people a county could lose, but how its demographics would change as a result. 

Rural Pennsylvanians over the age of 65 could soon outnumber those under 20, the Center’s report found, raising questions about how to care for aging residents amid a shrinking workforce.

The new commission is tasked with creating a report within two years, but Kyle Kopko, the executive director of the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, said he plans to push for some material from the commission coming out within the first year. 

Part of the task, Kopko said, will be raising awareness of the seriousness — and urgency — of the problem rural communities face. Because local officials are responsible for so much, particularly in rural communities where staffs are smaller, they have less time to dedicate to issues like population loss. 

“There are a lot of stakeholders that aren’t aware of the demographic changes that are going to occur,” he said. “There may not be the opportunity to think about these big picture, long term trends, and hopefully we can serve as a resource for engaging in this long term planning.” 

Not every rural county is seeing the same rate of decline, Kopko said. Rural places near metropolitan areas in eastern and central Pennsylvania have had more success attracting new young residents than counties in the west of the state. 

Part of what the commission can help with is teaching rural places how to market themselves and show young people why they should consider moving there, Kopko said.

“Pennsylvania has something to offer everyone,” he said. “If you want the best urban lifestyle, we have that. If you want dark skies, we have that — and everything in between.”

State Representative Eddie Day Pashinsk, chair of the Agriculture and Rural Affairs Committee, said in a press conference that the commission might be the first of its kind led by a state government. It will include a bipartisan collection of lawmakers, along with local public officials, school directors and members of the private sector. 

“Establishing this commission will establish Pennsylvania as a national leader in addressing rural population challenges,” he said. “By prioritizing the revitalization of our rural communities we are demonstrating our Commonwealth’s commitment to the wellbeing of all — all — its residents.”

Of the 41 Pennsylvania counties expected to lose a significant portion of the population over the next 30 years, only three are classified by the center as urban. Much of the decline comes from what demographers call natural decrease, where the number of deaths outnumbers the number of births. 

Nationally, rural counties lost 119,000 residents to natural decrease from 2022 to 2023, the Yonder found, but that was offset by migration. About 229,000 people moved to rural areas during the same time frame, with about 80% of those migrants coming from other parts of the U.S. and about 20% coming from outside the country. 

But in those Pennsylvania counties facing decline, state Senator Gene Yaw said the implications could be vast. 

“The bottom line is workforce, and one thing we’ve talked about is the impact of childcare on our workforce,” he said. “That’s a huge issue.”

The commission’s main goal? Be proactive, not reactive, as these challenges loom. “We don’t have time to waste,” Yaw said.

The post New State-Level Commission out of Pennsylvania Hones in on Rural Population Decline appeared first on The Daily Yonder.

News Source : https://dailyyonder.com/new-state-level-commission-out-of-pennsylvania-hones-in-on-rural-population-decline/2024/06/25/